Devry (DV): Over-Extended Down-Trend

Devry (DV) flagged a confirmed BUY on my algorithmic DMA signal criteria. DV has been in a narrow range, the trend being down, then to sideways. Analyzing the trends duration and overall strength, its extremely over-extended to the down side, and is due for a bounce upwards.

Fundamental's

P/E: 9.13

PEG: 1.80

ROE: 10.31%

ROA: 7.71%

ROI: 9.36%

Although DV has negative growth as well as sub-par financial effectiveness, it is significantly undervalued with a low P/E & PEG-Ratio

Technicals

DV has found extremely strong support at the 18.30 level as its bounced of this level three times, even heavy volume trading days fail to penetrate this level, suggesting supply of TV is meet by demand from hungry bull bids on any weakness.

Mainline-Support holds, the key is to break the pivotal point of 21.50 to launch DV back to mid 20's

 A Rising CMF indicator crossing the zero line shows a Positive Bullish-Divergence for DV

Short term momentum oscillators across the board flag DV as both over-sold as well as crossing on the STOCH 20 line which is a reliable BUY-Signal when the current momentum position of DV stock as being  currently oversold.

Above we can see a massive Positive MACD Bullish-Divergence signal, this shows DV is due  for a move to the upside, the divergence continues to get tighter showing that a move in volume and direction is very probable shortly.

Overall DV is lined up to be a bounce play off of mainline support as the oversold conditions of the DV are over-extended and buyers will step back in to take speculative positions in anticipation of DV's subscription base to increase as the fall is their best season for revenue flows.

Position: Long- 18.98 500 shares.

Barnes & Noble: Over-Sold Descending Wedge Trade

Barnes & Noble (BKS) has flagged a buy from my Directional Discretionary Technical System today. BKS has been in a long term trading range, hovering between the $20 dollar over-head resistance level, and the $10 mainline support. Before we analyze the chart, lets look at some fundamental valuation of the company. I'm looking to long BKS from $12.25  to $13.05-$13.10 for a trade only. Would be 75% equity holding 25% (100 September call options) strike price $13.

Fundamentals

• Peg Ratio of .8 (extremely low) indicates that the price of BKS stock is undervalued.
• Debt to Capital Ratio of 25.78%, this is good it shows BKS is not significantly over-leveraged, the industry norm is 35-40%.
• 56% of the stock is held by institutions and insiders.
• 34.57% of the stock is short (high short interest).

BKS earnings 2012 beat the street consensus of a .98 loss with a .78 cent loss, due to increasing sales of Kindle Fire product, which is a strong real competitor with the apple when it comes to tablet reading. This is also a positive indication for a potential turn around of BKS sub-par profit and revenue numbers in recent years. EPS growth is 21% which is within industry norms but very good for a company as large as BKS.

 

Total revenue has increased from 5 billion in 2009 to 7.4 billion to first quarter 2012, that's a 2.4 billion dollar increase in revenue due to over 7 million kindles being sold in the last 3 years...and its only gaining stronger momentum in the electronic retail sector of tech spending trend in the retail world. ROE, ROA, ROI are substantially below industry averages but this is due to the BKS being the market leader and largest player by far in brick and mortar book retail.

Technical's, Price Action

BKS stock has bounced off the $10-$11 dollar mainline support level three times this year. Even on heavy volume down days, BKS failed to penetrate this support level, confirming this to be a non-catalyst/event driven bottom. Currently in the past 3 months BKS has been in a Falling Descending Wedge pattern, which is a short term bullish reversal pattern, which is ranked 11 out of 19 (Bulkowski Chart Patterns), the pattern has a 65% chance of rising and a average gain of 26%. Contraction of volume is here at the beginning of the wedge as well, which only furthers the reliability of the pattern.

BKS has a positive MACD divergence signal, this is an extremely reliable indication a short term bounce is in order, also the MACD signal line crossed today showing positive momentum is due extremely soon. Also slow stochastic momentum crossed the 20 oversold level signal threshold level, also indicating BKS to be in a over-sold state due for a bounce.

My specially designed Double Smoothed 5EMA True Strength Index Double Cross-Over System has also indicated BKS to be vastly over-sold, a buy signal occurred today, and BKS is well on its way to reaching the -.25 over-sold signal line as well.

Overall with the series of low discounted fundamentals, over-sold technical's and 34% short interest, BKS is due for a quick move to the low to mid 13's in the coming two weeks, i would recommend BKS stock as a short term momentum play, due to some short covering (squeeze)action.

S&P-500: Tumble Comming More Than Likely

  So with Sarkosy & Merkel beng defeated by complete nut case left-wing communists its safe to say the market will undoubtley react towards there bizzare statements such as Tsipras’s calls to tax the rich, delay debt repayments on Greek Debt, and Hollande to simply, not austerize anymore...that will work well because they are a currencer issuer and not a user....*que heavy sarcasm*

But i predicted all of this weeks ago and positioned myself in cash to short this sucker, but using advanced Technical Analysis this was very apparent.

Multiple Top Chart Pattern

Apple (APPL): Rounded Top :Trend-Over-Extension

 There has been all kind of talk on AAPL failing to make new highs after their block-buster earnings announcement last week.  To put it simply this is a bearish picture for the tech-glamour stock.

• Rounded Top formation pretty evident.
• Heavy selling volume last week, weak buying volume.
• If $600 breaks you can expect a retracement to $560-$550
• Earnings were amazing....why didn't arbituer's correct the price back to last weeks highs? Sentiment is bearish long term, that's why...bearish picture for economy = demand for apple goods will be much lower.

• To much Over-Head Supply on market = Strong Over-Head Resistance.
• If we cannot get past $625 on strong volume, then a fall below 600 is 100%.
• If moving past resistance fails, then we can expect testing of $560 level due to support failure.

Overall Apple has had an amazing run, but it seems to be to risky to not take profits on this mad winner, since it appears a Rounded Top formation is the case. I expect if we break 600, AAPL falls to 570...then if no rebound the downtrend will continue.

 

Gold Star Resources (GSS) : Descending Wedge - Multiple Bottom

Pattern & Technical Analysis

      Loving this chart, GSS trading at 52-week low, due to bearish outlook for mining stocks etc, GLD + XLB are not the hottest trading ETF's but GSS is significantly under-valued. Lets have a look.

We can above the multiple bottoms and the Descending Wedge Pattern : Bullish Reversal Pattern

We have established strong support at the $1.50 mark, this leads be to believe that supply is being meet by demand here...and this 1.50 mark as stopped over-extensions in supply in the past 4 months, hence the phrase "strong" support. It just appears bears cannot push GSS past this level.

• If $1.60 is pierced then $1.80 is the next level.
• If $1.80 is pierced and we get over the $2 mark, then we are looking at a legitimate possible long term trend reversal, Wedges are know for this kind of reversal action.

    We have strong support established, as well as an observable rounding bottom formation at the last touch of this wedge. The wedge channel lines are contracting nicely as they are suppose to, so i believe the bounce off of this 1.50 mark, will be the bounce that pierces the wedge.

Momentum Analysis

Momentum indicators across the board scream over-sold, a we have some specialized momentum indicators with buy signals which i will show below.

5 Day EMA crossed %R in at Over-sold level: Bullish

5 Day EMA crossed True Strength Index at Over-sold level: Bullish



Stochastic & Momentum indicator cross over, plus turning upwards nicely in the Over-sold region of the chart.

   Momentum analysis suggests GSS is definitely over-sold and due for a nice run here shortly. I agree, all the indicators are very over-sold and are turning upwards to climb out of the rut GSS has been in. This is all very bullish for GSS, we can see indicators across the board suggest its time to buy and ride a new wave of positive price action.

 We also got a MACD cross-over taking place as well as a MACD Divergence signal: Super Bullish especially for long term price action.

Volume Analysis

Volume indicators show a decrease in volume over the past two weeks. This is typical in the Descending Wedge Pattern. OBV plus A/D suggest steady accumulation at these price levels with alot more to come.

Entry Strategy

 Based on some of the analysis methods of my system, this is a high probability trade. I think tomorrow we will open either at 1.55 or a penny or two below or a above, depending on the markets overall open, which should be up. I would start by buying a couple 5k block shares with a tight limit. Just test the waters to see if the bottom is legit. We saw a nice hammer candle form today, which is a bullish reversal candlestick.

   
Overall GSS looks like a great bottom trend reversal play, and since its ADX rating is 17 is definitely in a oscillating zone and indicators should be used to judge if it is over-sold....**which it certainly is**......i going to initiate a 70,000 share position, around 1.60 tops.

Position: Long

Target: $2.45

First Nationa Bank (FNB): Push Higher, Or Dip?

Price action today for FNB's stock was quite interesting, this chart set up as well as equity analysis for FNB leaves us with a interesting Picture.

Basic Chart & Pattern Analysis

Adam & Eve Double Bottom: Characteristics?

• Appearance: Double Bottom with one narrow & one wide bottom, break-out upward.
• Short Term Bullish Reversal.
• Performance Rank: 8 out 0f 23 (Bulkowski Back-Tested.)
• Average Rise (statistically speaking): 37%
• Volume Trend: Downward during formation of pattern.

What we can see is FNB has recently had a confirmation of the short-term bullish reversal pattern over the past 6 trading days. The pattern is pretty evident and almost text book. The pattern is tall & has formed at yearly highs, which adds further confirmation to a continuation of the trend reversal upwards.

Also We Can See

• Bull flag, occurring after confirmation of Double Bottom pattern = Very Bullish, bull flags are a very reliable bullish continuation signal, just shows a trough (buy on dip) in a up-trend.
• Described declining volume during formation of pattern.

These two patterns formed over the past two months if a very strong indication that the uptrend for FNB has some more room to run higher. Overall pattern analysis flags FNB as being bullish.

Trend Extension Strength + Momentum

Currently FNB is in an Oscillating Range Via Trend Extension, so the best way to analyze if it is Over-Bought or Over-Sold is to use indicators and oscillators. As we can see above...

• RSI turning upwards to cross 80 line.
• Stochastic Cross-over in progress over 100 line.
• Momentum indicator to make another run higher

So what this more-less means is that the trend has been bullish for many months now, but it still has room and strength for a continuation upward, but obviously is not at a discount by any means via Technical Analysis.

Volume Analysis

Volume action for FNB is clear. Accumulation, Accumulation, Accumulation. This is all very bullish, and shows that even tho the price ran down several times, back-door accumulation by professionals as well as noise was occurring. This shows the demand for FNB stock has consistently been on the rise, and the volume indicators alot more accumulation to come.

Entry Strategy

The only thing i did not like today was FNB long-legged Doji Candle-Stick on an increase in volume. This Candle-Stick occurs when supply and demand are equally meant, and shows legitimate indecision between Bull's & Bear's. But it did still close green so that is better than red.

Regardless i think to enter FNB as a trade it obvious bull's may be tiring for the moment, tomorrow mornings price action based off of volume will indicate if we see a minor trough-blip or a solid rise tomorrow. If the minor trough-blip occurs, i expect a short-run retracement to $12.12-$12.15. But i think within the next two weeks FNB should close around $13.70-$14.05 Range.

Overall the Trend is still got room to rise higher, and is strong, on a multi-month chart perspective low 12's are a good entry, for a nice 7% to 9% pop. Tomorrows price action (which i expect to be down) will tell us alot about the short-run direction of FNB's price, but long-term, the chart is a confirmed BUY, once it pulls back to the low 12's.

Position: Long

Target: 13.80 - 14.05 (Next 2-3 Weeks)

Hyper Dynamics (HDY) : Ascending Triangle Break-out

In the past month shares of HDY have been pounded, following the speculative oil company's failure to spud legitimate oil from their SABU-1 oil well. Regardless the stock plunged from from $2.50 range in late February to the $1.30-$1.40 range through-out this month to this day.

HDY has been bouncing consistently off of the 1.30 support line, this proves to me that the intrinsic supply & demand point has established this price area as being mainline support as well as a price bottom..

Pattern Analysis

What we can see is a few things

• Text book Ascending Wedge
• Gap to $2 to fill.
• the 5th point of the 5-point Ascending Triangle confirmation pattern line is due to touch come Monday.
• Morning Star Pattern formed in the past 3 days of trading, as well as a bullish engulfing pattern. Both being strong reversal candle patterns.

Volume Analysis

Above we can see that Accumulation/Distribution & On-balance volume have been oscillating in a range with HDY's price action, this downward sloping trend in volume (light volume since gap down as well) is confirmation a large move is to come, and based off of the chart it looks like a bullish pennant for the volume pattern.

The supply of HDY on the market has been meet by serious demand in the low 1.30's, volume dictates an over-extension in supply, and bears are loosing power and grow tired. Also there is a 25% short float on the stock, this means shorts will cover once bears loose steam, bringing a major short squeeze play into play. Which will blow HDY's PPS close to 1.80. The continuous decline in volume ended Friday with a 11% gain on 12.4 million shares. That's huge when AVG volume is 3 million shares.

  

Volatility Analysis


For volatility analysis we can see the following

• Contraction in volatility, squeeze is in progress, this will expanded either upwards or  downwards, and oscillators and momentum indicators strongly suggest upwards.
• %B indicator shows bounce and should easily pierce 100 line upper band tag.
• A move is coming soon. Volatility would indicate another swing upwards short term.

MACD Divergence



 We can see a massive divergence signal in HDY's price action as well as its MACD histogram reading. This is a high bullish indication for HDY and also further suggests another run int he equity.



 

Overall HDY is flagging a buy on many more indicators and analysis methods, i only covered the more important ones. I believe HDY is poised for another major run here shortly. I do currently own 125,000 shares of this company, i purchased last week as well for a nice swing trade.

Position: Long

Target Price: 1.72-1.80 (High) 1.63-1.70(Low)