Hyper Dynamics: Confirmed Bullish Upwards Trend!

So it appears proper due diligence has paid off.....score one for Inefficient Markets Theory this pas week....as i said on my previous blog... Tuesday would be the day of the HDY price take off....12% gain that day...and its been trending upwards since..

What we are witnessing is a combination of group dynamics....shorts covering their positions...and associated longs, jumping on the train as the engine is starting at the station.

Above we can see that a new upwards bullish trend has been established and is in the process of a continuation upwards. (Blue lines indicate bullish trend lines) This does not come as much of a surprise, based of the analysis of my previous articles.

Resistance was broken at 5.16 today....i found it amusing that whether the shorts or some other market player or power broker wanted to keep a lid on that price..and failed. I witnessed many big multi-hundred thousand share sell blocks get eaten through by bullish volume. This leads me to believe that the massive 20% short postion on HDY (with 4 days left to cover) are getting desperate in finding and exit from their trade. It seems to me some major institution is trying to force HDY down to a lower price to minimize their losses.

Overall the current situation is now obviously a new bull market for HDY. Here are some other points

• $5.45 is the next resistance point...if we can pierce that by Monday- or Tuesday......it should be easy to hit $5.90-to $6.15 a share.
• This is a short squeeze in process....as the price continues to climb acceleration of PPS will increase due to the squeeze.
• Volatility will increase due to the squeeze...so expect a constant battle between intra-day long and sell positions.
• Either way this new bullish trend has a ways to go.
• Last but not least...we can expect major upwards PPS movement after the NASI announcement due any day now.

All in all the trend has been confirmed...so lets sit back and watch the direction of the trend.....but being weary of noise traders jumping aboard the train...irrational exuberance is a reality in every bull run...one must know when to properly exit the trade and take profits!!!

Hyper Dynamics (HDY): Further Bullish Breakout Confirmation.

Mechanical trading system indicators blew up today...they show further upcoming bullish trend confirmation signals after the last two medium volume volatile trading days.

In the chart above we can see three things.

• The mechanical Parabolic SAR has recently turned bullish showing a upwards trend to be beginning in process.
• The +DI line of the Directional Movement Indicator is above the -DI line right when he Parabolic SAR is suggesting a new upward trend. 
• Candle Stick's are settling at resistance points instead of breaching support points on daily charting.

When Parabolic's change direction to bullish..with a confirming Direction Movement Positive line above the Directional Movement Negative line..this almost invariably is a ironclad confirmation of a bullish breakout since possible whipsaws from the Parabolic SAR  can be ignored. Coupled with the incredibly contracted BB bands its blatantly apparent we will see a breakout any day now...most likely Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday..but probably Tuesday.

All in all, the Bullish falling wedge continuation pattern is still in effect. To be quite frank, i have not seen so many indicator's and pattern's align themselves together to basically say long this security right now...i mean this is like the planetary alignment of Technical Analyisis Indicators...its amusing...

Regardless its apprarent short sellers and market makers are holding this stock down so they can have more time to sell to cover..or accumlate more shares at a discounted price over a duration of time to avoid loosing potential spread points of massive bullish buying energy...

All in all, the time to buy is now...the breakout will most likely be fierce and fast...im expecting the move to occur next week..but never underestimate the continuation of a battle between Bull's and Bear's it can last and long time.


Position: Ultra Long

Advanced Micro Devices Revisited: Oversold & Undervalued?

Yesterday Alex Guana an analyst at JP Morgan moreless bashed AMD saying its new fusion chipsets will have no competitive advanatge towards intel, and is moreless no longer a relevant company in the semi-conductor industry. Now his comments may have some merit, but they certainly are biased. Many mainstream desk-top building fans, as well as major companies such as HP typically purchase AMD chipsets due to their performance to price ratio. AMD sells semiconductors that are slightly less powerful than intel's but half the price...in this economy value is what consumers are looking for. Regardless of the constant banter back and forth over what manufactuer is better lets take a look at what the charts have to say.

Based off of technical analysis of AMD here are some points suggesting a trend reversal.

• The latest trading day has shown the candle stick to close below the lower bollinger band..when this occurs this almost invariably should be used as a entry postion and almost always signals a buy.
• The CCI indicator is at -293..lmao...when the CCI line crosses -100 its considered very overvalued......i can honestly say i have never seen CCI approach these low levels unless there is some sort of major event or crash.
• AMD has been in a downwards trend for many weeks now, it seems to gravitating towards a more so sideways trading range..or so i predict. (illustrated with pink trendlines i inserted on the chart) So we can expect to see less volatile price movement.

Overall i think the recent price slide, is the reaction of noise traders and investors towards Alex Guana's comments, as well as the associated slide in the tech sector this week. AMD is a major company and when funds and traders liquidate positions in mutual funds, etf's, or sector based portfolios, AMD being a major tech stock will take a hit on negative volume.

Conclusion? I think AMD is reaching at, or approaching a bottom, and i believe making and entry trade now would be a profitable stratgey.........i expect to see AMD approach $7.60-$8.20 per share in the next 3 or 4 weeks.

Position: Long

Hyperdynamics Corporation: Breakout To be?

While running analysis of a variety of equities Hyperdynamics Corp. (HDY) came up on my screener. I almost invariably prefer to analyze securities that are trading sideways for a period of a week or so. Allows me to look at the previous 3 month trend to allow me to evalute which direction the trend is going.

So far it appears that HDY is a textbook depiction of a Bullish Falling wedge continuation pattern.

• Contracted Bollinger bands mean a directional breakout is due.
• Light volume preceded by falling wedge with contracted bands shows the bullish falling wedge pattern is working itself out before breaking out.

Based of the chart, and my analysis of the technicals i would give HDY a long call, it appears a bullish breakout is will occur after this contraction expands.

Position: Ultra Long

Value Buy: Cumberland Pharmaceticals (CPIX)

Cumberland Pharmaceticals (CPIX) has shown itself to be a very attrative equity play based of criteria of my stock screeners. CPIX from a fundamental point of view is a tremendously under valued company, for the follwing reasons.

• P/E ratio of 1
• PEG ratio of .68
• Debt to capital ratio of 9.49% which is very low conisdering the sector this company is in.

CPIX is one of the most profitable companies in the Biotechnology & Drugs industry. Its gross margin is among the strongest of any peer while the operating and net margins are above the industry medians substantially. CPIX is has very little debt, with plenty of on hand equity to pay off all outstanding liabilities if needed. From a Technical Analysis perspective CPIX is very oversold on almost all indicators.  bollinger bands suggest CPIX is hugging the lower band, which is a indicator towards a uptrend in price movement to take place after this pull back is over. Moving averages suggest the stock is unvervalued and should be trading 9-15% higher than it is now.  CCI indicates its massivly undervalued. All stochastics point towards CPIX being oversold, as well as it having a breakout upwards here shortly. When all Technical & Fundamental indicators point towards any assest being oversold/undervalued its more often than not a price correction in the positive will occur. I would say based off of my analysis CPIX is due to increase in sahre value by 8% low side 15% high side within the next 3 weeks. I rate CPIX as a BUY. CPIX is a financially healthy bio-tech company with tremendous growth opportunity, coupled with due dillegence and its recent sell off, its at a discount and will most likely rise in value quite nicely in the comming weeks.

Advanced Cell Technology: Easy 10% Pop?

In December of 2010 i made 88% off of short term trading of Advanced Cell Technology (ACTC). So out of boredom, i went back and took a look at how the speculative stem cell therapy company was trading. What i found was quite nice. Almost all of the technical inidcators suggested the stock was very oversold and was due for a turn around shortly. The day i checked, ACTC had a share price appreciation of 4%, further confirming the indicators signals.

Personally, i think the market as a whole is overvalued. But until more investors and traders, managers etc start to realize this, i see no reason not to take advantage of the irrational over-bullisness. The fundamentals of ACTC make out as well. When the Nasdaq rises in value almost always the OTC follows right behind it, so at this current point ill buy into this "rally", and realistically ACTC is one of the top stem cell companies on the market. Which means over bullish investors, or managers looking to buy some speculative investments may pick some shares of this company up for the potential of a high yield.

Every indicator above (Plus many more the free version of stockcharts wont allow me to use at once) shows that the stock is over-sold.

• All stochastic oscillators point towards ACTC to be oversold and to begin climbing into a upward trend.
• The DPO shows ACTC is due to turn north.
• What is a very good sign in my opinion is that the MFI (Money Flow Index) points to more equity in accumulation of ACTC shares to be climbing.
• More less all technical indicators suggest a buy.

What is of important notice is the Bollinger Bands have contracted very narrowly. When this happens, it almost invariably leads an equity from choppy sidesways trading to a breakout either upwards or downwards, and with all the technical indicators pointing towards ACTC being over-sold, i believe it will rise in price from its current .18 cent level to resting at .20 cents .22 cents top's in the short run.

Advanced Micro Devices: Great Short Term Momentum Trade?

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) witnessed a 5% surge in its share price after a day of high volume trading. AMD had recently been trending and trading in bearish territory due to getting creamed by competitor chip maker Intel (INTC). AMD has seen a very generous 10.6% rise in the past 5 days, now i would typically find that fast of a rise to be a tad bit irrational, and maybe it is. However, technical indicators point towards a reverse trend from downwards, to upwards movement. Before we hit the charts, lets see some fundamental reasons why AMD share's are poised to rise in price.

• PEG ratio of 1.32% (Low)
• New and more economical chip sets taking market share from Intel.
• Investors recovering, from the behavioral reaction towards the surprise firing of AMD'S CEO in recent days.
• Net operating income increase of $67 million compared to Q3 of 1 million.

All of these factors show fundamental reasons for AMD to rise in value. Today many analyst's upgraded AMD'S future outlook from reduce/hold to buy. Now lets take a look at the charts.

Here we can see that many technical indicators have taken a entirely different direction.

• The CCI has emerged from oversold territory trending now upwards, indicating a bullish trend is now in play.
• The Slow Stochastic Oscillator has crossed the sell signal, now giving off a buy signal.
• The Parabolic SAR indicator is suggesting a new trend upwards is beginning.
• The bollinger bands also indicate this a rebound of the current down trend.

The Stochastic Relative Strength Index shows its soared into the overbought territory. However looking at historical data of this indicator, its hows these overbought conditions typically continue for a duration of 3-4days. This mean's to me we can expect more gains for AMDS stock in the following trading sessions.

From a behavioral point of view, 87% of fellow investors/traders predict AMD shares will make gain's tomorrow and over the following 3 days. So it seems that sentiment towards AMD's stock is favorable as well.

Conclusion? It appears that all Technical and Fundamental indicator's point towards this stock being a short term buy. I would predict that we should see a upward moving trend for another three to four, maybe five trading sessions. I predict AMD will rise 9-13% before pulling back. As for long term share appreciation, well that's a different story. With so much market share being taken away by Intel, it may be a long time until AMD witnesses any significant share price appreciation, but for the short term i think its good for a solid 10 point pop.