Hyper Dynamics Corp: Break-out Deja Vu?

Hyper Dynamics (HDY) has recently been flagged by multiple signals from my system as a possible pre-breakout phase, consolidated equity. We have been down this road before with this equity, it proves to be profitable time and time again, and its the same pattern we see now that we saw before the last breakout. Lets take a look.

What we can see?

• Contracted Bollinger Bands. Volatility is becoming contracted, when the BBands contract, it always leads to a new trending direction.
• My 13,26 Dual Moving Average system crossed over, signalling a buy. Every time this system crossed over, a new upwards trend began.
• We can see a classic Bullish Pennant or Wedge its debatable but both are consistently profitable.

In association with volatility contraction and the formation of a very reliable and profitable chart pattern, we can also see that HDY has fallin into a consolidation non-trending sideways trading range. What that means is simple, before periods of great share price movement there is normally a consolidating or small range of price change.

• ADX signals non-trending, consolidation.
• ATR signals non-trending, consolidation.
• Bollinger Band Width signals non-trending consolidation.
• DMI/+/- is about to cross-over.

What this means is there is going to be a breakout in share price, and soon. The million dollar question is what direction? Well there is limited reason to believe it will break-out downwards. This exact same pattern formation a month ago lead to a 35% gain. Here are some reasons why it will break upward

• Months of large institutional quite buying.
• Large insider share buying.
• Tomorrow, September options expire, strike price is 4$ and 5$, Algos say 5$ is the target, meaning that HDY should soon be pushed to 5$ per share.
• Declining Volume, which is 90% accurate when used with a pennant as bullish confirmation.
• Large community bullish sentiment
• HDY's recent promotion from the AMEX to the NYSE
• Current candlestick is at the Pivot Point. Suggesting a move.

Some of my other Oscillators such as MACD and Stochastic's also indicate a buy signal.

All in all i think HDY is poised to breakout upwards once again. I would estimate based off of volatility range and previous breakouts, we can see HDY hit $5.50 a share to possibly $6.50 a share.
Lets hope this bad boy blows upwards come Monday or Tuesday.

Position: Long HDY

Alcoa Inc: New Upward trend in development?

I recently placed a large trade on Alcoa Steel at 12.11$ a share. Seems to have been a casualty of the recent market sell off last week. The companies fundamental's have not changed, so obviously it's recent 2$-3$ fall in share price is a result of funds selling off positions out of fear, and Alcoa's shares getting tied up with the indices recent retracement.

I believe this to be a Bullish Pennant, although due to recent overall market volatility its hard to find accurate continuation patterns, so it may be a Triple Bottom with a breakout to come soon. Here are some thoughts.

• AA is at a 52-low area
• AA is current trading at its pivot point area.
• AA's lowest short term support level is $11.11
• 10 day SMA crossed over 20 day SMA, as well as ADX declining at 35, this suggests a new upwards trend is to begin, and todays recent small gap up may be the beginning of new upwards movement.

All in all i think AA is a potential bottomed out equity that is poised to at leas hit 12.75$-13$ a share with the next week or so.

Position: Long AA