First Nationa Bank (FNB): Push Higher, Or Dip?

Price action today for FNB's stock was quite interesting, this chart set up as well as equity analysis for FNB leaves us with a interesting Picture.

Basic Chart & Pattern Analysis

Adam & Eve Double Bottom: Characteristics?

• Appearance: Double Bottom with one narrow & one wide bottom, break-out upward.
• Short Term Bullish Reversal.
• Performance Rank: 8 out 0f 23 (Bulkowski Back-Tested.)
• Average Rise (statistically speaking): 37%
• Volume Trend: Downward during formation of pattern.

What we can see is FNB has recently had a confirmation of the short-term bullish reversal pattern over the past 6 trading days. The pattern is pretty evident and almost text book. The pattern is tall & has formed at yearly highs, which adds further confirmation to a continuation of the trend reversal upwards.

Also We Can See

• Bull flag, occurring after confirmation of Double Bottom pattern = Very Bullish, bull flags are a very reliable bullish continuation signal, just shows a trough (buy on dip) in a up-trend.
• Described declining volume during formation of pattern.

These two patterns formed over the past two months if a very strong indication that the uptrend for FNB has some more room to run higher. Overall pattern analysis flags FNB as being bullish.

Trend Extension Strength + Momentum

Currently FNB is in an Oscillating Range Via Trend Extension, so the best way to analyze if it is Over-Bought or Over-Sold is to use indicators and oscillators. As we can see above...

• RSI turning upwards to cross 80 line.
• Stochastic Cross-over in progress over 100 line.
• Momentum indicator to make another run higher

So what this more-less means is that the trend has been bullish for many months now, but it still has room and strength for a continuation upward, but obviously is not at a discount by any means via Technical Analysis.

Volume Analysis

Volume action for FNB is clear. Accumulation, Accumulation, Accumulation. This is all very bullish, and shows that even tho the price ran down several times, back-door accumulation by professionals as well as noise was occurring. This shows the demand for FNB stock has consistently been on the rise, and the volume indicators alot more accumulation to come.

Entry Strategy

The only thing i did not like today was FNB long-legged Doji Candle-Stick on an increase in volume. This Candle-Stick occurs when supply and demand are equally meant, and shows legitimate indecision between Bull's & Bear's. But it did still close green so that is better than red.

Regardless i think to enter FNB as a trade it obvious bull's may be tiring for the moment, tomorrow mornings price action based off of volume will indicate if we see a minor trough-blip or a solid rise tomorrow. If the minor trough-blip occurs, i expect a short-run retracement to $12.12-$12.15. But i think within the next two weeks FNB should close around $13.70-$14.05 Range.

Overall the Trend is still got room to rise higher, and is strong, on a multi-month chart perspective low 12's are a good entry, for a nice 7% to 9% pop. Tomorrows price action (which i expect to be down) will tell us alot about the short-run direction of FNB's price, but long-term, the chart is a confirmed BUY, once it pulls back to the low 12's.

Position: Long

Target: 13.80 - 14.05 (Next 2-3 Weeks)

Hyper Dynamics (HDY) : Ascending Triangle Break-out

In the past month shares of HDY have been pounded, following the speculative oil company's failure to spud legitimate oil from their SABU-1 oil well. Regardless the stock plunged from from $2.50 range in late February to the $1.30-$1.40 range through-out this month to this day.

HDY has been bouncing consistently off of the 1.30 support line, this proves to me that the intrinsic supply & demand point has established this price area as being mainline support as well as a price bottom..

Pattern Analysis

What we can see is a few things

• Text book Ascending Wedge
• Gap to $2 to fill.
• the 5th point of the 5-point Ascending Triangle confirmation pattern line is due to touch come Monday.
• Morning Star Pattern formed in the past 3 days of trading, as well as a bullish engulfing pattern. Both being strong reversal candle patterns.

Volume Analysis

Above we can see that Accumulation/Distribution & On-balance volume have been oscillating in a range with HDY's price action, this downward sloping trend in volume (light volume since gap down as well) is confirmation a large move is to come, and based off of the chart it looks like a bullish pennant for the volume pattern.

The supply of HDY on the market has been meet by serious demand in the low 1.30's, volume dictates an over-extension in supply, and bears are loosing power and grow tired. Also there is a 25% short float on the stock, this means shorts will cover once bears loose steam, bringing a major short squeeze play into play. Which will blow HDY's PPS close to 1.80. The continuous decline in volume ended Friday with a 11% gain on 12.4 million shares. That's huge when AVG volume is 3 million shares.

  

Volatility Analysis


For volatility analysis we can see the following

• Contraction in volatility, squeeze is in progress, this will expanded either upwards or  downwards, and oscillators and momentum indicators strongly suggest upwards.
• %B indicator shows bounce and should easily pierce 100 line upper band tag.
• A move is coming soon. Volatility would indicate another swing upwards short term.

MACD Divergence



 We can see a massive divergence signal in HDY's price action as well as its MACD histogram reading. This is a high bullish indication for HDY and also further suggests another run int he equity.



 

Overall HDY is flagging a buy on many more indicators and analysis methods, i only covered the more important ones. I believe HDY is poised for another major run here shortly. I do currently own 125,000 shares of this company, i purchased last week as well for a nice swing trade.

Position: Long

Target Price: 1.72-1.80 (High) 1.63-1.70(Low)