Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Goldman Sachs: Good Short Term Trade?

Goldman Sach's common stock had a signifigant pull back today, falling 4.69%, and to 4.98% afterhours. That is about 9 dollars per share. What are the reasons for this pullback? Here are some strong possibilities.
  • GS Reported today, that earnings fell 53% in the fourth quarter, due to decrease of demand in its investment-banking and trading businesses.
  • The whole facebook drama. Goldman decided to block U.S investors from investing in its FaceBook IPO (reason is still unkown), this has lead to a utter PR disaster for Goldman.
  • Many top traders, and portfolio manager's, claim many technical indicators (VIX & trading algorithms) are giving off the first bearish signals since 2007 pointing towards a 10-15% trend downwards in equities (especially financials) starting at the end of the month.
Although these factors may represent a long term bearish outlook for goldman, im more interested in the short term. For a stock like Goldman, which has a large Market Cap 85 billion, as well as a large amount of shares, a moderate pullback like this may end up being seen as a buying oppotunity to many traders and investors. Goldman is expected to make a boat-load of cash on the FaceBook IPO, ive seen many traders on messege boards showing bullish sentiment towards Goldman as well.

From a Technical Analysis standpoint, heres what we got.


As you can see the 10 SMA is above the 30 EMA so GS is trending up. This indicates that the GS is still giving off bullish signals. The GS Jan 20 candle stick fell from the trend of hugging the upper bollinger band to touching the lower bollinger band. This leads me to believe that today's sell off is a behavioral reaction to the news today, and tomarrow traders and investors will see this as a opportunity to buy GS at a short-run discount. So i expect we will see a rise in GS share price by 2.5% to 4%. So for the short term trade, lets take advantage of purchasing GS at a discount and make money off the spread, when the stock recovers from the sell off earlier today.

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